Khurshid Alam

Background
Urban-rural inequality in accessing quality antenatal care (ANC) is a well-documented challenge in low- and middle-income countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan, hindering maternal healthcare utilization and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. This study explores the key factors contributing to this inequality in Bangladesh and Pakistan and highlights inter-country differences.

Methods
We analyzed data from Demographic Health Surveys (2017–2018) of Bangladesh and Pakistan for women aged 15–49 who had at least one live birth in the three years preceding the survey. To identify the extent and sources of inequality, we decomposed urban-rural differences in quality ANC utilization into explained (attributable to variations in socioeconomic and demographic characteristics) and unexplained (reflecting differences in the effects of these characteristics) components using Blinder-Oaxaca type models adapted for nonlinear response variables.

Results
Urban women were significantly more likely to receive quality ANC than rural women in both Bangladesh and Pakistan, with disparities of about 20%-25% points. Most of the inequality was explained by differences in socioeconomic and educational characteristics rather than behavioral factors. Wealth status was the dominant contributor, explaining nearly 58% of the inequality in Bangladesh and 46% in Pakistan, followed by women’s and husbands’ education, media exposure, and women’s autonomy. The pattern of predictors was broadly consistent across both countries, though education contributed more in Pakistan, while media exposure and husband’s education played a larger role in Bangladesh.

Conclusion
Significant urban-rural inequality exists in Bangladesh and Pakistan, which is more pronounced in Pakistan. Among the common significant predictors for both countries, wealth disparity has the highest contribution percentage. In Pakistan, women’s education is the second largest contributor to inequality, whereas in Bangladesh, both media exposure and husband’s education played notable roles. Reducing urban-rural inequality in quality ANC requires targeted policies addressing wealth and educational disparities, along with interventions that promote media access and women’s autonomy to ensure equitable maternal healthcare utilization.

Background
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and mobility-restricting policies (MRPs) have created substantial barriers to healthcare access globally. This study quantified the causal impact of government-imposed MRPs and perceived COVID-19 risk on household unmet medical needs in Nigeria, examining the differential effects for vulnerable populations.

Methods
We conducted difference-in-differences analyses using nationally representative household panel data from the pre-pandemic period (January-February 2019, n = 1,596 households) and the early pandemic period (April-August 2020). Unmet needs were measured as self-reported forgone medical care at the household level. We employed two approaches to disentangle voluntary from policy-driven restrictions: comparing states with total versus partial lockdown, and comparing states with below- versus above-median mobility reductions (Google Mobility data). We estimated COVID-19 risk effects across four state-level case burden categories during and after the lockdown.

Results
Households in total lockdown states experienced 13.0% points (95%CI: 3.0–23.0) (doubling baseline rate) higher unmet needs compared to households in partial lockdown states. This converges with mobility approach showing 15.0% points (95%CI: 6.0–25.0) higher unmet needs among individuals with below-median mobility. During lockdown, the COVID-19 case burden had no significant differential impact. However, during the post-lockdown period (June-August 2020), households in Lagos (the epicentre, with more than 10,000 cases) experienced 24.0% points (95%CI: 2.0–46.0) higher unmet needs compared to low-risk states. Persons with disabilities faced disproportionate barriers during lockdown, with a 40.0% point (95% CI: 6.0–74.0) higher rate in high-risk states and a 74.0% point (95%CI: 22.0-126.0) higher rate in the epicentre. No differential impacts were observed for poverty or chronic disease status.

Conclusion
Considering the detrimental effects of unmet medical needs, this study suggests that policymakers should evaluate the risks of COVID-19 in relation to the implementation of MRPs to protect households and vulnerable groups during future pandemics in Nigeria.

Mental health conditions impose substantial economic burdens on healthcare systems globally, with growing evidence indicating disproportionate impacts on household-level out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures. Despite Australia's universal healthcare system, the financial burden of mental health conditions on households remains underexplored.
To examine the longitudinal relationship between mental health status and OOP healthcare expenditures among Australian adults, and assess how education and income moderate this relationship.
We analyzed 17 waves (2006-2022) of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, encompassing 57,647 person-year observations from 3,391 unique individuals. Mental health was measured using the Mental Health Inventory-5 (MHI-5) scale and newly proposed expanded MHI-9 scales. We employed fixed-effects panel regression models and instrumental variable analysis to address unobserved heterogeneity.
A one-unit decrease in MHI-5 score is associated with 0.18-0.25% increase in inflation-adjusted OOP healthcare expenditure, equivalent to AU$2.10-$3.00 per unit decline, with a 10-point decline in MHI-5 costing households an additional AU$21-$30. Instrumental variable estimates revealed larger causal effects of 0.80-1.00%. Individuals with good mental health and higher education demonstrated expenditure patterns consistent with Grossman's health capital theory, while those with poor mental health showed disrupted relationships between education and healthcare spending. Urban residents faced 11.00% higher inflation-adjusted OOP costs than the rural residents.
Mental health deterioration significantly increases household healthcare expenditure burdens in Australia. Traditional health economics theories apply primarily to individuals with good mental health, indicating the need for targeted rather than universal policy approaches.

Data on dementia epidemiology in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is limited. This systematic review and meta-analysis examined dementia prevalence across MENA. Databases were searched up to October 2024. Analyses were stratified by country and sex. Pooled prevalence was estimated using a random-effects model with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Fifty-two studies on the selected countries met inclusion criteria, covering 87,219 individuals with dementia from a total population of 1,045,908. The pooled prevalence was 12.16% (95% CI: 9.61–14.96) for the region and the Israel had the highest prevalence (17.00%), followed by Iran (13.20%), Turkey (11.40%), Saudi Arabia (8.34%), and Egypt (6.86%). Dementia was more common in women than men (13.84% vs. 8.69%). Dementia is prevalent in MENA, with significant variation across countries. The region's aging population highlights the need for ongoing monitoring of dementia trends.

Chronic respiratory diseases, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease (ILD) and pulmonary sarcoidosis, are major global causes of mortality and morbidity. Although the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced acute respiratory health, its impact on chronic respiratory conditions remains unclear. We estimated the global, regional and national burden of chronic respiratory diseases from 1990 to 2023, including risk factors, and evaluated how these burdens have shifted during the COVID-19 pandemic using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023. In 2023, chronic respiratory diseases accounted for 569.2 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 508.8-639.8) cases and 4.2 million (3.6-5.1) deaths. The age-standardized death rate declined by 25.7% globally from 1990 to 2023 despite an increase in ILD and pulmonary sarcoidosis. Mortality declined in younger males, especially for asthma, whereas older adults experienced a rise in ILD and pulmonary sarcoidosis. Smoking was the primary risk factor for COPD, whereas high body mass index and silica exposure were key risk factors for asthma and pneumoconiosis. During the pandemic, the incidence of chronic respiratory diseases increased modestly, but the decline in mortality rates became more pronounced, highlighting the need for sustained global attention and action to address their long-term burden.

Background
Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) remain the world's leading infectious cause of death. This analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 provides global, regional, and national estimates of LRI incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with attribution to 26 pathogens, including 11 newly modelled pathogens, across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. With new data and revised modelling techniques, these estimates serve as an update and expansion to GBD 2021. Through these estimates, we also aimed to assess progress towards the 2025 Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia and Diarrhoea (GAPPD) target for pneumonia mortality in children younger than 5 years.

Methods
Mortality from LRIs, defined as physician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis, was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model with data from vital registration, verbal autopsy, surveillance, and minimally invasive tissue sampling. The Bayesian meta-regression tool DisMod-MR 2.1 was used to model overall morbidity due to LRIs. DALYs were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for all locations, years, age groups, and sexes. We modelled pathogen-specific case-fatality ratios (CFRs) for each age group and location using splined binomial regression to create internally consistent estimates of incidence and mortality proportions attributable to viral, fungal, parasitic, and bacterial pathogens. Progress was assessed towards the GAPPD target of less than three deaths from pneumonia per 1000 livebirths, which is roughly equivalent to a mortality rate of less than 60 deaths per 100 000 children younger than 5 years.

Findings
In 2023, LRIs were responsible for 2·50 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·24–2·81) deaths and 98·7 million (87·7–112) DALYs, with children younger than 5 years and adults aged 70 years and older carrying the highest burden. LRI mortality in children younger than 5 years fell by 33·4% (10·4–47·4) since 2010, with a global mortality rate of 94·8 (75·6–116·4) per 100 000 person-years in 2023. Among adults aged 70 years and older, the burden remained substantial with only marginal declines since 2010. A mortality rate of less than 60 deaths per 100 000 for children younger than 5 years was met by 129 of the 204 modelled countries in 2023. At a super-regional level, sub-Saharan Africa had an aggregate mortality rate in children younger than 5 years (hereafter referred to as under-5 mortality rate) furthest from the GAPPD target. Streptococcus pneumoniae continued to account for the largest number of LRI deaths globally (634 000 [95% UI 565 000–721 000] deaths or 25·3% [24·5–26·1] of all LRI deaths), followed by Staphylococcus aureus (271 000 [243 000–298 000] deaths or 10·9% [10·3–11·3]), and Klebsiella pneumoniae (228 000 [204 000–261 000] deaths or 9·1% [8·8–9·5]). Among pathogens newly modelled in this study, non-tuberculous mycobacteria (responsible for 177 000 [95% UI 155 000–201 000] deaths) and Aspergillus spp (responsible for 67 800 [59 900–75 900] deaths) emerged as important contributors. Altogether, the 11 newly modelled pathogens accounted for approximately 22% of LRI deaths.

Interpretation
This comprehensive analysis underscores both the gains achieved through vaccination and the challenges that remain in controlling the LRI burden globally. Furthermore, it demonstrates persistent disparities in disease burden, with the highest mortality rates concentrated in countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, as well as in these high-burden locations, the under-5 LRI mortality rate remains well above the GAPPD target. Progress towards this target requires equitable access to vaccines and preventive therapies—including newer interventions such as respiratory syncytial virus monoclonal antibodies—and health systems capable of early diagnosis and treatment. Expanding surveillance of emerging pathogens, strengthening adult immunisation programmes, and combating vaccine hesitancy are also crucial. As the global population ages, the dual challenge of sustaining gains in child survival while addressing the rising vulnerability in older adults will shape future pneumonia control strategies.

Funding
Gates Foundation.

Background
Asthma and atopic dermatitis are common allergic conditions that contribute to substantial health loss, economic burden, and pain across individuals of all ages worldwide. Therefore, as a component of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we present updated estimates of the prevalence, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), incidence, and deaths due to asthma and atopic dermatitis and the burden attributable to modifiable risk factors, with forecasted prevalence up to 2050.

Methods
Asthma and atopic dermatitis prevalence, incidence, DALYs, and mortality, with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), were estimated for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. A systematic review identified data from 389 sources for asthma and 316 for atopic dermatitis, which were further pooled using the Bayesian meta-regression tool. We also described the age-standardised DALY rates of asthma attributable to four modifiable risk factors: high BMI, occupational asthmagens, smoking, and nitrogen dioxide pollution. Furthermore, as a secondary analysis, prevalence was forecasted to 2050 using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), air pollution, and smoking as predictors for asthma and atopic dermatitis. To assess trends in the burden of asthma and atopic dermatitis before (2010–19) and during (2019–21) the COVID-19 pandemic, we compared their average annual percentage changes (AAPCs).

Findings
In 2021, there were an estimated 260 million (95% UI 227–298) individuals with asthma and 129 million (124–134) individuals with atopic dermatitis worldwide. Asthma cases declined from 287 million (250–331) in 1990 to 238 million (209–272) in 2005 but increased to 260 million in 2021. Atopic dermatitis cases consistently rose from 107 million (103–112) in 1990 to 129 million (124–134) in 2021. However, age-standardised prevalence rates decreased—by 40·0% (from 5568·3 per 100 000 to 3340·1 per 100 000) for asthma and 8·3% (from 1885·4 per 100 000 to 1728·5 per 100 000) for atopic dermatitis. In 2021, there were substantial variations in the burden of asthma and atopic dermatitis across different SDI groups, with the highest age-standardised DALY rate found in south Asia for asthma (465·0 [357·2–648·9] per 100 000) and the high-income super-region for atopic dermatitis (3552·5 [3407·2–3706·1] per 100 000). During the COVID-19 pandemic, the decline in asthma prevalence had stagnated (AAPC pre-pandemic –1·39% [–2·07 to –0·71] and during the pandemic 0·47% [–1·86 to 2·79]; p=0·020); however, there was no significant difference in atopic dermatitis prevalence in the same period (pre-pandemic –0·28% [–0·33 to –0·22] and during the pandemic –0·35% [–0·78 to 0·08]; p=0·20). Modifiable risk factors were responsible for 29·9% of the global asthma DALY burden; among them, high BMI was the greatest contributor (39·4 [19·6–60·2] per 100 000), followed by occupational asthmagens (20·8 [16·7–26·5] per 100 000) across all regions. The age-standardised DALY rate of asthma attributable to high BMI was highest in high-SDI settings, whereas the contribution of occupational asthmagens was highest in low-SDI settings. According to our forecasting models, we expect 275 million (224–330) asthma cases and 148 million (140–158) atopic dermatitis cases in 2050, with population growth driving this increase. However, age-standardised prevalence rates are expected to remain stable (–23·2% [–44·4 to 5·3] for asthma and –1·4% [–9·1 to 7·0] for atopic dermatitis) from 2021 to 2050.

Interpretation
Although the increases in the total number of asthma and atopic dermatitis cases will probably continue until 2050, age-standardised prevalence rates are expected to remain stable. A considerable portion of the global burden could be managed through efforts to address modifiable risk factors. Additionally, the contribution of risk factors to the burden substantially varied by SDI, which suggests the need for tailored initiatives for specific SDI settings. The growing number of individuals expected to be affected by asthma and atopic dermatitis in the future suggests that it is essential to improve our understanding of risk factors for asthma and atopic dermatitis and collect disease prevalence data that are globally generalisable.

Funding
Gates Foundation.

Background
This study investigates the crowding-out effect of out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) on household consumption in Nigeria, a critical issue in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) given the escalating prevalence of NCDs and associated high care costs.

Methods
Using data from the 2018/2019 Nigerian Living Standard Survey, we employ a Generalised Method of Moments estimator and conditional Engel curve equations derived from the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System to analyse the impact of NCD and non-NCD OOP expenditures on 13 household consumption categories.

Results
Despite representing <2% of household budgets, NCD OOP expenditures significantly crowded out essential spending, particularly on healthier food options (fruits, vegetables, protein) and cooking energy sources, disproportionately affecting lower-income households. Intriguingly, discretionary spending on sugar, alcoholic/sugary beverages, entertainment (including tobacco) and meals outside the home remained unaffected, possibly indicating reliance on these fast meal alternatives due to limited cooking fuel access. Middle-income households also experienced crowding out of staples and education expenditures.

Conclusions
These findings highlight the urgent need for universal health coverage to reduce OOP burdens, alongside targeted interventions addressing NCD burden, dietary quality, the energy crisis and health inequities in Nigeria and, by extension, SSA.

Background
Since its inception in 1974, the Essential Programme on Immunization (EPI) has achieved remarkable success, averting the deaths of an estimated 154 million children worldwide through routine childhood vaccination. However, more recent decades have seen persistent coverage inequities and stagnating progress, which have been further amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2019, WHO set ambitious goals for improving vaccine coverage globally through the Immunization Agenda 2030 (IA2030). Now halfway through the decade, understanding past and recent coverage trends can help inform and reorient strategies for approaching these aims in the next 5 years.

Methods
Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023, this study provides updated global, regional, and national estimates of routine childhood vaccine coverage from 1980 to 2023 for 204 countries and territories for 11 vaccine-dose combinations recommended by WHO for all children globally. Employing advanced modelling techniques, this analysis accounts for data biases and heterogeneity and integrates new methodologies to model vaccine scale-up and COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions. To contextualise historic coverage trends and gains still needed to achieve the IA2030 coverage targets, we supplement these results with several secondary analyses: (1) we assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on vaccine coverage; (2) we forecast coverage of select life-course vaccines up to 2030; and (3) we analyse progress needed to reduce the number of zero-dose children by half between 2023 and 2030.

Findings
Overall, global coverage for the original EPI vaccines against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (first dose [DTP1] and third dose [DTP3]), measles (MCV1), polio (Pol3), and tuberculosis (BCG) nearly doubled from 1980 to 2023. However, this long-term trend masks recent challenges. Coverage gains slowed between 2010 and 2019 in many countries and territories, including declines in 21 of 36 high-income countries and territories for at least one of these vaccine doses (excluding BCG, which has been removed from routine immunisation schedules in some countries and territories). The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these challenges, with global rates for these vaccines declining sharply since 2020, and still not returning to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels as of 2023. Coverage for newer vaccines developed and introduced in more recent years, such as immunisations against pneumococcal disease (PCV3) and rotavirus (complete series; RotaC) and a second dose of the measles vaccine (MCV2), saw continued increases globally during the COVID-19 pandemic due to ongoing introductions and scale-ups, but at slower rates than expected in the absence of the pandemic. Forecasts to 2030 for DTP3, PCV3, and MCV2 suggest that only DTP3 would reach the IA2030 target of 90% global coverage, and only under an optimistic scenario. The number of zero-dose children, proxied as children younger than 1 year who do not receive DTP1, decreased by 74·9% (95% uncertainty interval 72·1–77·3) globally between 1980 and 2019, with most of those declines reached during the 1980s and the 2000s. After 2019, counts of zero-dose children rose to a COVID 19-era peak of 18·6 million (17·6–20·0) in 2021. Most zero-dose children remain concentrated in conflict-affected regions and those with various constraints on resources available to put towards vaccination services, particularly sub-Saharan Africa. As of 2023, more than 50% of the 15·7 million (14·6–17·0) global zero-dose children resided in just eight countries (Nigeria, India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Indonesia, and Brazil), emphasising persistent inequities.

Interpretation
Our estimates of current vaccine coverage and forecasts to 2030 suggest that achieving IA2030 targets, such as halving zero-dose children compared with 2019 levels and reaching 90% global coverage for life-course vaccines DTP3, PCV3, and MCV2, will require accelerated progress. Substantial increases in coverage are necessary in many countries and territories, with those in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia facing the greatest challenges. Recent declines will need to be reversed to restore previous coverage levels in Latin America and the Caribbean, especially for DTP1, DTP3, and Pol3. These findings underscore the crucial need for targeted, equitable immunisation strategies. Strengthening primary health-care systems, addressing vaccine misinformation and hesitancy, and adapting to local contexts are essential to advancing coverage. COVID-19 pandemic recovery efforts, such as WHO's Big Catch-Up, as well as efforts to bolster routine services must prioritise reaching marginalised populations and target subnational geographies to regain lost ground and achieve global immunisation goals.

Funding
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

This study aims to analyse the crowding-out and crowding-in effects of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) related out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures on household consumption in Bangladesh.

Design
This study used data from the nationally representative Bangladesh household income and expenditure survey (HIES) 2022.

Setting
Eight divisions of Bangladesh.

Participants
14 395 households.

Primary and secondary outcome measures
We examined how household consumption patterns across 20 expenditure categories were impacted by OOP health spending for NCD management, with a focus on income-level disparities.

Results
In Bangladesh, OOP health expenditures for NCDs crowded out household expenditures on essential items like food and rent. Across all households, OOP health expenditures for NCDs by 10 US$ crowded out −3.8 US$ of expenditure on food (95% CI −5.1 to –2.5), and more specifically on protein-rich foods (−2.0 US$, 95% CI −2.8 to –1.2), spices (−0.2 US$, 95% CI −0.3 to –0.1), and restaurant and café meals (−0.9 US$, 95% CI −1.4 to –0.5). Crowding-out was also seen for tobacco, rent, durable goods and miscellaneous. In lower-income households, expenditures on food (−4.1 US$, 95% CI −7.2 to –1.1), restaurant and café meals (−2.0 US$, 95% CI −3.1 to –0.8), spices (−0.4 US$, 95% CI −0.7 to –0.09), and rent (−3.1 US$, 95% CI −4.5 to –1.6) were significantly crowded out.

Conclusion
This research demonstrates that NCD-related spending in Bangladesh reduces budgets for both food and non-food expenditures, with a stronger crowding-out effect on food items and rent, particularly in lower-income households. Effective financial and social protection mechanisms against NCDs are warranted to safeguard the consumption of the NCD-affected households in Bangladesh.